Monday, January 30, 2006

Iran's nuke showdown

On Sunday, the Observer reported that Iran was ready to use its missiles to strike Israel or Western forces stationed in the Gulf if attacked.

This is scary, especially at a time when the situation in the middle east is volatile with the victory of Hamas in Palestine.

What are the chances of Iran and Hamas working together to strike a blow at their common enemy Israel?

The Sunday report quoted an Iranian official as saying:

"The world knows Iran has a ballistic missile power with a range of 2,000km (1,300 miles). We have no intention to invade any country [but] we will take effective defence measures if attacked."

The US is a fervent advocate of military action against Iran over its nuclear programme. However UK and the rest if Europe feel the matter can be solved without a military attack. They propose a UN sanction against the Islamic Republic.

However things seem to be looking good as today reports stated that Iran was taking part in informal talks over its controversial nuclear programme with EU negotiators in London, ahead of Thursday's emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

However some analysts fear that Iran might not be serious in these talks based on the fact that it has not send its top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani.

Experts believe this looks like a tactic to weaken the resolve of the EU ahead of Thursday's meeting, when Iran could be referred to the UN Security Council to face sanctions.

I wonder if the parties will agree with the Russian plan to conduct the nuclear enrichment in Russia on behalf of Iran.

Russia's proposal might be defeated if the western powers believe the Iranian nuclear programme is for military use and not for energy purposes as claimed by Iran.

But with Russia and China backing Iran, there is no way the Security Council is going to get an unanimous vote for stiff actions.

Thus, the solution could lie on Russia's proposals, or end with Iran's threat.

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