US court India and Pak while Iran goes to M'sia

The US is presently engaged in three different wars - in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism. At the same time, this superpower also wants to deter other 'rogue' states from becoming potential enemies in the near future.

In this second category falls countries like North Korea and Iran. A point to note is that both these countries have nuclear capabilities. The US is trying hard to contain the nuclear capabilities of these countries, the result of which is the ongoing momentum to threaten Iran with economic sanction to stop its nuclear programme.

And on another hand, the US also wants to keep close to chest countries which it sees as potential economic rival. And at the moment one country above all falls in this category - India.

Thus in his visit to India this week, President Bush is expected to bring up the Iran nuclear issue. Before that he would have to agree with India on few deals that would allow for the US to supply nuclear technology and fuel desperately needed by India to fuel its booming but energy-starved economy.

In return, India must agree to separate its military and civilian nuclear programs and open up the civilian ones to international inspection.

This is where the deals could collapse as many in India believe there should not be outside interference and meddling in its nuclear programme.

If that is the case then, will India support Bush in limiting Iran's nuclear ambitions?

Why is India's support so vital for Bush in his fight against Iran? Its simple and its economy. India's economy is booming and it has large business deals with Iran. For its economy to continue booming, India will have to be insane to support any economy sanction against Iran.

This is where the other aspects of Bush's visit to India comes in. Also in the bag are few trade deals between India and the US, but will these sweeteners be enough to gain the Indian support?

My guess is that the deciding factor will be the final outcome of the nuclear accord between India and the US. If the US agrees to the Indian request of not allowing international inspectors into its civilian installations and this is coupled with good trade deals, then the other deal is surely clinched - India will back the US against Iran.

But Iran is not just going to stand still and wait for the US to engage more partners. For its part, the Islamic republic is seeking out fellow Muslim countries to support it.

And this week, it is seeking the support of what is possibly the most influential Muslim country of all - Malaysia.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, accompanied by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, makes a three day trip to Malaysia to explain Tehran's position and drum up support ahead of a March 6 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Malaysia is the current leader of both the 57-member Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the world's biggest grouping of Muslim nations, and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), a bloc of more than 100 mainly developing nations.

Malaysia has voiced support for Iran's nuclear programme to meet its energy needs and Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said last year that the world should not put Iran "to the wall" over the issue.

But will Malaysia be able to help Iran at all?

Some diplomats don't think Malaysia can offer Iran a strong support.

A Western diplomat based in KL said:

"NAM and Malaysia find themselves stuck in a difficult position. They might be suspicious of Iran's motives and its nuclear program, but they are tied to defending its right to a civil nuclear program. Malaysia's also quite keen to be seen as a bridge, but not as a mediator because that carries too many risks."

If that is the case and if Malaysia and NAM are not able to drum up support for Iran, then the Islamic republic will have no choice but to seek out other Muslim countries on its own.

And again, this is where President Bush has got an upper hand. His visit to Pakistan immediately after India and his short, surprise stop-over in Afghanistan before Delhi is aimed at gaining the support of these two countries against Iran.

The UN will sit on in the near future to discuss Iran's nuclear programme. Iran and its opponents have until then to do their sales pitch to gain support. Who knows what will happen after that.

One thing is for sure. This time the US will not go to war unless it has STRONG support from EVERYONE. And I think it does not have that yet.

p/s: photo sourced from reuters

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