BN’s woes in Batu Talam

There are about 500 Orang Asli voters in Batu Talam. And the government is trying hard to ensure that these votes end up in their kitty.

The problem for BN is this. Of the 10,525 votes, nearly 80 percent of the voters are Malay and from that an average of about 2,500 have always gone to PAS. The Islamic party has contested in this state seat since 1982.

But with PAS boycotting the by-election this time around, there are questions of where will these 2000 odd PAS votes be going.

On the surface PAS has been telling its supporters that while the party is boycotting the polls, it will not stop them from voting. On the ground however, the message is different.

As I see it, we can take for granted these 2000 votes are not going to go into the ballot boxes and even if they do, it will be spoilt votes.

And then we have the Chinese votes - accounting to about 11 percent. All these while MCA has been able to deliver these votes in total for BN candidates. This time around, the contest is between a Malay BN candidate and a Chinese Independent.

The Independent candidate has been playing his cards right by visiting Chinese new villages to canvass for votes. His youthful charm and his plea to allow him to retain his deposit might see him getting some Chinese votes.

Five percent of the votes are from the Indian community and I am sure all these will go to BN. No problems here.

And finally we have the Orang Asli. For me, these are the so-called phantom voters. In the past, there have been instances of their identity cards being used by others for voting.

And again, this time too, Pahang Umno is advising the Orang Asli in Batu Talam not to give out the identity cards to outsiders. A case of Umno being careful so that others don’t follow their tactics?

Anyway, malaysiakini contacted some Orang Asli voters in Batu Talam and found out that the government was holding a series of programmes to keep them close. There is sukaneka, food festivals and sports carnival being held on daily basis and in between they are being told to remember to vote for BN.

But still the worry is there for BN. The problem with the Orang Asli is that, according to a local Umno leader, they have gotten used to being paid for voting.

So even now they want money for their votes. They also want cigarettes and footballs. And they are willing to just give their MyKad to the highest bidder. For them, the time wasted in voting can be better used in gathering petai in the forest.

For the next two days, Umno will be doing all it can to keep these Orang Asli under its total watch. On the other hand MCA will be going house-to-house to ensure the Chinese don’t flip.

But the biggest worry will be the Malay votes. Being a by-election, the turn out will not be high. And then when we minus the PAS votes, it is going to be lower still.

So when the deputy prime minister said he wanted at least a 3,000 majority, he was being foolish. Local Umno leaders realise this and that is why they said 3,000 target is not achievable.

Let’s see how it goes in Sunday.